Ayurvedic Astrology
  • Home
  • Astrology Readings
    • Bookings
    • Fresh Reviews
    • Vintage Reviews
    • World Renown
    • Info Needed
  • Research
    • Bibliography
    • Coding
  • Resources
    • Bending Spoons Guide
    • Real-time Gold & Silver Prices
    • Personality Trait Predictor
    • Katapayadi Calculator
  • Media
    • Articles
    • Podcasts
    • Videos
  • Store
    • Astrology
    • Jewelry
    • Self Care
  • About
    • Contact
    • Newsletter

Even AA Rating Charts in Astro-Databank of People Born After 1930 Are Highly Likely to be Wrong

1/17/2018

0 Comments

 
Astro-databank is the resource for researchers in astrology. It is a repository of birth information of many thousands of people and events and includes biographic data as well as the birth time, place, and date. Of high utility is the included Rodden Rating which tells us the accuracy of each chart.

An AA rating is "Data as recorded by the family or state". The expectation of many researchers is that AA data is of the highest accuracy possible and can be used freely.  In the following, I show statistically that it is extremely unlikely that the AA rating charts altogether are accurate. I will be considering charts of people only and only those born at or after 1930.

From here on, I will try to state things as explicitly as possible.

The common assumption (the null hypothesis) is that AA rating charts are all of high accuracy and hence, taken altogether, exhibit behavior of high accuracy. My assertion (the alternate hypothesis) is that AA rating charts do not exhibit behavior of accurate birth data.

One behavior of accurate birth data is that the minute of birth is evenly distributed. That is to say, a birth time of 8 minutes after the hour is not expected to happen much more or less than a birth time of 9 minutes after the hour, for example. 

The following is a simulation of a uniform distribution so that you you know what its plot looks like.
Picture
As you can see, there is variation, but no bar is wildly higher or lower than another bar. On the whole, the bars are even, more or less.

The statistical test that I will be using to test a match of the Astro-databank data to a discrete uniform distribution is called the Pearson's chi-squared test. If its result is less than 0.05, then the data is generally considered unlikely to be from that distribution.

​For example, in the randomized computer simulation above, the test statistic is 57.6489 with a p-value of 0.525436 which is consistent with it belonging to the discrete uniform distribution. 

For the minutes of charts of people born after 1930 in Astro-databank with the highest AA rating, do they fit a discrete uniform distribution?

No. For a sample taken from the first 13,056 such charts (the largest practical one for the limits of my computer), the test statistic is 63.7 and the resultant p-value is 7.18058*10^-10. Again, any p-value less than 0.05 is generally considered statistically significant. Thus, the alternate hypothesis is supported.

As a comparison to the above graph of an even distribution of birth minute, look at the graph for the AA charts:
Picture
​Bottom line: across thousands of charts, the birth minute in AA ranking data of people in Astro-databank is likely to be rounded to the nearest 5 minutes, even more likely to be rounded to the nearest ten minutes, even more likely than that to be rounded to the nearest fifteen minutes, even more likely than that to be rounded to the nearest half hour and even more likely than that to be rounded to the nearest hour.

While Astro-databank remains an invaluable overall tool for researchers, birth minute in Astro-databank, generally speaking, is not useful.

​Calculations and source files are below.
accuracy_unlikely_1.nb
File Size: 317 kb
File Type: nb
Download File

urls3b.mx
File Size: 4056 kb
File Type: mx
Download File

data3.mx
File Size: 112834 kb
File Type: mx
Download File

[Postscript: for those who would like to see the data only for people who are born at or after 1980, here you go. P-value is ​3.30016*10^-22. So, the situation is even worse.]
Picture
0 Comments

Your comment will be posted after it is approved.


Leave a Reply.

    ARTICLES

    Author

    Renay Oshop - teacher, searcher, researcher, immerser, rejoicer, enjoying the interstices between Twitter, Facebook, and journals.

    Right now, if you are commenting, there is an issue with the CAPTCHA part. Place your cursor below the line that says "Enter the words above:" (on the second screen, below the pictures) to answer it successfully.

    Categories

    All
    Astrology
    Ayurveda
    Cooking
    Jewelry
    Math
    Miscellaneous
    Research
    Sanskrit
    Yoga

    RSS Feed

    Archives

    March 2018
    February 2018
    January 2018
    November 2017
    October 2017
    February 2017
    January 2017
    June 2016
    February 2016
    December 2015
    November 2015
    October 2015
    September 2015
    August 2015
    July 2015
    June 2015
    March 2015
    April 2014
    February 2014
    January 2014
    January 2013
    December 2012
    October 2012
    May 2012
    April 2012
    February 2012
    January 2012
    November 2011
    July 2011
    April 2011
    December 2010
    November 2010
    October 2010
    September 2010
    August 2010
    June 2010
    January 2010
    October 2009
    July 2009
    May 2009
    February 2009
    January 2009
    November 2008
    October 2008
    September 2008
    August 2008
    July 2008
    June 2008
    May 2008
    April 2008
    June 2002

© 2008–2018  Renay Oshop  AyurAstro®
Become a Patron!
  • Home
  • Astrology Readings
    • Bookings
    • Fresh Reviews
    • Vintage Reviews
    • World Renown
    • Info Needed
  • Research
    • Bibliography
    • Coding
  • Resources
    • Bending Spoons Guide
    • Real-time Gold & Silver Prices
    • Personality Trait Predictor
    • Katapayadi Calculator
  • Media
    • Articles
    • Podcasts
    • Videos
  • Store
    • Astrology
    • Jewelry
    • Self Care
  • About
    • Contact
    • Newsletter
✕